Q2 2023 : Supply Chain Market Intelligence Report

RV Industry

• The current 2023 shipment forecast is at 297,100 units. However, this forecast shows a bump up to 348,400 in 2024.
• Despite the slowing growth of RVs in general, there has been an uptick in consumers renting RVs. This is driven in large part by the 54% increase in the average cost of a hotel room from 2022 to 2023.
• RVIA reports 2023’s new vehicle shipments are down almost 50% through May compared to 2022 shipments. The only category to see growth was the Type C, Mini Motorhomes.

Transportation & Manufacturing

Transportation Updates

• Despite real imports starting their slowdown in 2023 (-13%) vs. 2022, that trend is not expected to continue into next year.
• The Cass Index shows a continued drop in all trucking rates in May 2023 vs. May 2022, in part due to decreases in fuel, as well as some headwinds in freight volumes.
• Despite decreases in oil production, diesel prices have fallen for 20 of the last 22 weeks, bringing the lowest price since January 2022.

Manufacturing Updates

• Manufacturing capacity continues to erode and is projected to be slow into 2024.
• The labor market continues to be tight, though there appears to be a move toward a balance between supply and demand in labor.

Economic Environment

Consumer Concerns

• Inflation and recession remain the largest concerns for Americans, with more than half believing either could negatively impact their financial situation.
• More Americans (49%) are planning to travel this summer than planned to last summer (39%). Of those not planning to travel, 38% are prioritizing saving money (versus 27% for the same reason in 2022).

Market Concerns

• The Federal Reserve uses the Consumer Price Index to monitor the impact their monetary and interest rate actions are having.
• In June the CPI ticked up only 0.2% from May, which similarly only saw a 0.1% increase over April.
• The CPI report shows that inflation is at its lowest level in the last two years, giving some confidence that the US could avoid a recession.

Unemployment Rate

• Unemployment is at 3.6%, holding relatively steady over the last few months.
• June’s job growth was the smallest since the end of 2020, suggesting that the labor market could be slowing down, albeit only slightly.